Simulating the effect of climate change on barley yield in Ethiopia with the DSSAT?CERES?Barley model

Climate change is expected to have a major effect on crop production in sub-Saharan Africa. Crop models can help guide management under future climate. The objective of the study was investigate possible effects climate Ethiopian barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)-Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Barley model. included field data two cultivars (Traveller and EH-1493) four areas Ethiopia over 5 yr. scenarios were set up 60 yr representative concentration pathways (RCP; RCP4.5 RCP8.5) five global (GCM). model results indicated that prediction days anthesis maturity, as well final grain yield, highly accurate cultivar Traveller with normalized RMSE (nRMSE) 2, 1, 12%, respectively, EH-1493 nRMSE 4, 11%. A consistent increase average temperature °C mixed pattern rainfall (-61 +86%) projected. Yield simulations showed potential reduction yield 98% 63% future. Within sensitivity analysis, different sowing dates, densities, fertilizer rates tested adaptation approaches change. negative could be mitigated by early sowing, an increased density 25% rate 50% more than what recommended. Overall, ability CERES-Barley evaluate options rainfed Ethiopia.